全寿命周期成本(LCC)电力设备管理中的运行和故障费用十分重要, 但是设备的运行故障费用的模型却很难得到, 同时全寿命的可靠性研究也需要设备故障模型的支持。在上海电网采购管理系统(PMS)的设备运行数据的基础上, 对设备故障与设备成本、设备维修情况、设备使用年限等进行统计。通过选取设备管理的模型和回归分析方法, 得到反映设备故障及其关键影响因素之间关系的数学模型, 找到故障模型与关键因素之间的定量关系。在该数学模型的基础上, 进行设备故障预测、全寿命评估和可靠性分析, 使得上海电网目前已有的设备数据, 采用回归分析在工程上更为实用。

Operation and fault cost is very important in LCC power equipment management and reliability research, but it is difficult to acquire, therefore mathematic model is needed in LCC. In this paper, on the basis of data from PMS, regression analysis is used to study mathematic model between equipment fault and factors which cause faults, such as cost, maintain and the time equipment has used. Quantitative relationship can be reflected in this model, which may be applied in fault forecast, LCC estimation and reliability analysis of power equipments. Employ of realistic data of equipment in Shanghai area makes the statistics and regression analysis a practical one, which has positive meaning for engineering.